http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/34285 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41932 Technology Transition in the National Air Transportation System: Market Failure and Game Theoretic Analysis with Application to ADS-B Hu, Xiaojie Air traffic demand is increasing, but capacity is constrained by an antiquated air traffic control (ATC) infrastructure. The number of air traffic passengers in the U.S. is expected to grow from 738 million in 2005 to 1 billion in 2015. The number of commercial airline flights is expected to grow from 13 million in 2005 to 15 million in 2015. [22] Figure 1-1 shows the growth in air traffic demand in the United States in recent years. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41876 Analysis of Interaction between Air Transportation and Economic Activity Ishutkina, Masha Hansman, R. John This paper uses both world-wide and country-level analysis to describe the relationship between air transportation and economic activity. In particular, we describe how economic, infrastructural, institutional and geographic factors affect the mapping of cargo and passenger flows to the enabled flows of labor, knowledge, investment, remittances, tourism and goods. We also identify the role of government and exogenous drivers in this relationship. We illustrate the relationship using several examples: Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, Jamaica, China and India. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41863 Scalability of the Air Transportation System and Development of Multi-Airport Systems: A Worldwide Perspective Bonnefoy, Philippe Hansman, R. John With the growing demand for air transportation and the limited ability to increase capacity at some key points in the air transportation system, there are concerns that in the future the system will not scale to meet demand. This situation will result in the generation and the propagation of delays throughout the system, impacting passengers’ quality of travel and more broadly the economy. This thesis proposes the investigation of the mechanisms by which the air transportation system has scaled to meet demand in the past and is expected to do so in the future using a multi-level engineering systems approach. The air transportation system was first analyzed at the U.S. national level using network abstractions. In order to investigate limits in scaling of the U.S. air transportation network, theories of scale-free and scalable networks were used. It was found that the U.S. air transportation network was not scale-free due to capacity constraints at major airports, also preventing it from being scalable. However, the construction and analysis of a new network for which sets of two or more significant airports that serve passenger traffic in a metropolitan region (i.e. multi-airport systems) were aggregated into single nodes showed that it was scale-free and scalable. These results were also supported by a time series analysis of airport and multi-airport system growth. These analyses demonstrated the importance of regional level scaling mechanisms (i.e. development of multi-airport systems) in the ability of the air transportation system to adapt and scale to meet demand. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41855 System Transition: Dynamics of Change in the US Air Transportation System Mozdzanowska, Aleksandra Hansman, R. John The US Air Transportation System is currently facing a number of challenges including an increasing demand for travel and growing environmental requirements. In order to successfully meet future needs, the system will need to transition from its current state using a combination of technology, infrastructure, procedure, and policy changes. However, the complexities of the air transportation system make implementing changes a challenge. In particular, the multi-stakeholder nature of the system poses a significant barrier to transition. Historically, many changes in the air transportation system were driven by safety concerns and implemented following accidents which provided the momentum to overcome transition barriers. As a result of past changes, the system has become increasingly safe resulting in the emergence of new drivers for change. Security has emerged as a driver following the terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001 in the US and a number of system changes have since been implemented. Currently, capacity is one of the largest drivers of change. Addressing capacity issues requires solutions that can be accepted by stakeholders, and pass the necessary certification and approval requirements for implementation. The contribution of aviation to global greenhouse gas emissions is also becoming a significant driver for change in the system. The goal of this work is to understand how the air transportation system changes in response to safety, security, capacity, and environmental drivers for transition. In order to understand the dynamics of transition, historical cases of system change were studied. Twenty seven such cases have been analyzed to construct a feedback process model of transition and to explore specific change dynamics observed. These dynamics include: understanding the role of crisis events as catalyst for change; the effect that timing of solution development has on the overall time constant for change; the role that stakeholder objectives play in the transition process, and the use of approval and certification processes to stall or block change. Understanding the process of change in the US Air Transportation System can inform future changes in aviation as well as in other systems with similar properties.