http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3549 2013-05-26T07:30:16Z http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78302 The Energy and CO2 Emissions Impact of Renewable Energy Development in China Zhang, X.; Qi, T.; Karplus, V.J. China’s recently-adopted targets for developing renewable electricity—wind, solar, and biomass—would require expansion on an unprecedented scale in China and relative to existing global installations. An important question is how far this deployment will go toward achieving China’s low carbon development goals, which include a carbon intensity reduction target of 40–45% relative to 2005 and a non-fossil primary energy target of 15% by 2020. During the period from 2010 to 2020, we find that current renewable electricity targets result in significant additional renewable energy installation and a reduction in cumulative CO2 emissions of 1.2% relative to a no policy baseline. After 2020, the role of renewables is sensitive to both economic growth and technology cost assumptions. Importantly, we find that CO2 emissions reductions due to increased renewables are offset in each year by emissions increases in non-covered sectors through 2050. By increasing reliance on renewable energy sources in the electricity sector, fossil fuel demand in the power sector falls, resulting in lower fossil fuel prices, which in turn leads to greater demand for these fuels in unconstrained sectors. We consider sensitivity to renewable electricity cost after 2020 and find that if cost falls due to policy or other reasons, renewable electricity share increases and results in slightly higher economic growth through 2050. However, regardless of the cost assumption, projected CO2 emissions reductions are very modest under a policy that only targets the supply side in the electricity sector. A policy approach that covers all sectors and allows flexibility to reduce CO2 at lowest cost—such as an emissions trading system—will prevent this emissions leakage and ensure targeted reductions in CO2 emissions are achieved over the long term. 2013-04-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78301 Consumption-Based Adjustment of China's Emissions-Intensity Targets: An Analysis of its Potential Economic Effects Springmann, M.; Zhang, D.; Karplus, V.J. China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) aims to achieve a national carbon intensity reduction of 17% through differentiated targets at the provincial level. Allocating the national target among China’s provinces is complicated by the fact that more than half of China’s national carbon emissions are embodied in interprovincial trade, with the relatively developed eastern provinces relying on the central and western provinces for energy-intensive imports. This study develops a consistent methodology to adjust regional emissions-intensity targets for trade-related emissions transfers and assesses its economic effects on China's provinces using a regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. This study finds that in 2007 China's eastern provinces outsource 14% of their territorial emissions to the central and western provinces. Adjusting the provincial targets for those emissions transfers increases the reduction burden for the eastern provinces by 60%, while alleviating the burden for the central and western provinces by 50% each. The CGE analysis indicates that this adjustment could double China's national welfare loss compared to the homogenous and politics-based distribution of reduction targets. A shared-responsibility approach that balances production-based and consumption-based emissions responsibilities is found to alleviate those unbalancing effects and lead to a more equal distribution of economic burden among China's provinces. 2013-03-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77554 Protection of Coastal Infrastructure under Rising Flood Risk Lickley, M.J.; Lin, N.; Jacoby, H.D. The 2005 hurricane season was particularly damaging to the United States, contributing to significant losses to energy infrastructure—much of it the result of flooding from storm surge during hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy devastated New York City and Northern New Jersey. Research suggests that these events are not isolated, but rather foreshadow a risk that is to continue and likely increase with a changing climate. Extensive energy infrastructure is located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, and these facilities are exposed to an increasing risk of flooding. We study the combined impacts of anticipated sea level rise, hurricane activity and subsidence on energy infrastructure with a first application to Galveston Bay. Using future climate conditions as projected by four different Global Circulation Models (GCMs), we model the change in hurricane activity from present day climate conditions in response to a climate projected in 2100 under the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. We apply the results from hurricane runs from each model to the SLOSH model to investigate the projected change in frequency and distribution of surge heights across climates. Further, we incorporate uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of sea level rise and subsidence, resulting in more detailed projections of risk levels for energy infrastructure over the next century. Applying this model of changing risk exposure, we apply a dynamic programming cost-benefit analysis to the adaptation decision. 2013-03-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77553 Analysis of U.S. Water Resources under Climate Change Blanc, E.; Strzepek, K.; Schlosser, C.A.; Jacoby, H.D.; Gueneau, A.; Fant, C.; Rausch, S.; Reilly, J.M. The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, extended to include a Water Resource System (WRS) component, is applied to an integrated assessment of effects of alternative climate policy scenarios on U.S. water systems. Climate results are downscaled to yield estimates of surface runoff at 99 river basins of the continental U.S., with an exploration of climate patterns that are relatively wet and dry over the region. These estimates are combined with estimated groundwater supplies. An 11-region economic model (USREP) sets conditions driving water requirements estimated for five use sectors, with detailed sub-models employed for analysis of irrigation and electric power. The water system of the interconnected basins is operated to minimize water stress. Results suggest that, with or without climate change, U.S. average annual water stress is expected to increase over the period 2041 to 2050, primarily because of an increase in water requirements, with the largest water stresses projected in the South West. Policy to lower atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has a beneficial effect, reducing water stress intensity and variability in the concerned basins. 2013-02-01T00:00:00Z