http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39113 2013-05-18T22:51:04Z http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72936 Adjoint sensitivity analysis of the intercontinental impacts of aviation emissions on air quality and health Koo, Jamin Over 10,000 premature mortalities per year globally are attributed to the exposure to particulate matter caused by aircraft emissions. Unlike previous studies that focus on the regional impacts from the aircraft emissions below 3,000 feet, this thesis studies the impact from emissions at all altitudes and across continents on increasing particulates in a receptor region, thereby increasing exposure. In addition to these intercontinental impacts, the thesis analyzes the temporal variations of sensitivities of the air quality and health, the proportion of the impacts attributable to different emission species, and the background emissions' influence on the impact of aircraft emissions. To quantify the impacts of aircraft emissions at various locations and times, this study uses the adjoint model of GEOS-Chem, a chemical transport model. The adjoint method efficiently computes sensitivities of a few objective functions, such as aggregated PM concentration and human exposure to PM concentration, with respect to many input parameters, i.e. emissions at different locations and times. Whereas emissions below 3,000 feet have mostly local impacts, cruise emissions from North America impair the air quality in Europe and Asia, and European cruise emissions affect Asia. Due to emissions entering Asia, the premature mortalities in Asia were approximately two to three times larger than the global mortalities caused by the Asian emissions. In contrast, North America observed only about one-ninth of the global premature mortalities caused by North American emissions because emissions get carried out of the region. This thesis calculates that most of the premature mortalities occured in Europe and Asia in 2006. Sensitivities to emissions also have seasonal and diurnal cycles. For example, ground level NOx emissions in the evening contribute to 50% more surface PM formation than the same emissions in the morning, and cruise level NOx emissions in early winter cause six times more PM concentration increase than the same emissions in spring. Aircraft NOx emissions cause 78% of PM from aviation emissions, and given the population exposure to PM concentration increase, NOx contributes 90% of the total impact. By showing the second-order sensitivities, this study finds that increases in background emissions of ammonia increase the impact of aircraft emissions on the air quality and increases in background NOx emissions decrease the impact. These results show the effectiveness of the adjoint model for analyzing the longterm sensitivities. Some of the analyses presented are practically only possible with the adjoint method. By regulating emissions at high sensitivities in time and region, calculated by the adjoint model, governments can design effective pollutant reduction policies. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computation for Design and Optimization Program, 2011.; Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 75-79). 2011-01-01T05:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72873 Particle filtering with Lagrangian data in a point vortex model Mitra, Subhadeep Particle filtering is a technique used for state estimation from noisy measurements. In fluid dynamics, a popular problem called Lagrangian data assimilation (LaDA) uses Lagrangian measurements in the form of tracer positions to learn about the changing flow field. Particle filtering can be applied to LaDA to track the flow field over a period of time. As opposed to techniques like Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), particle filtering does not rely on linearization of the forward model and can provide very accurate estimates of the state, as it represents the true Bayesian posterior distribution using a large number of weighted particles. In this work, we study the performance of various particle filters for LaDA using a two-dimensional point vortex model; this is a simplified fluid dynamics model wherein the positions of vortex singularities (point vortices) define the state. We consider various parameters associated with algorithm and examine their effect on filtering performance under several vortex configurations. Further, we study the effect of different tracer release positions on filtering performance. Finally, we relate the problem of optimal tracer deployment to the Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) of point vortex system. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computation for Design and Optimization Program, 2012.; Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 131-138). 2012-01-01T05:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72869 Characterization of unsteady loading due to impeller-diffuser interaction in centrifugal compressors Lusardi, Christopher (Christopher Dean) Time dependent simulations are used to characterize the unsteady impeller blade loading due to imipeller-diffuser interaction in centrifugal compressor stages. The capability of simulations are assessed by comparing results against unsteady pressure and velocity measurements in the vaneless space. Simulations are shown to be adequate for identifying the trends of unsteady impeller blade loading with operating and design parameters. However they are not sufficient for predicting the absolute magnitude of loading unsteadiness. Errors of up to 14% exist between absolute values of flow quantities. Evidence suggests that the k - e turbulence model used is inappropriate for centrifugal compressor flow and is the significant source of these errors. The unsteady pressure profile on the blade surface is characterized as the sum of two superimposing pressure components. The first component varies monotonically along the blade chord. The second component can be interpreted as an acoustic wave propagating upstream. Both components fluctuate at the diffuser vane passing frequency, but at a different phase angle. The unsteady loading is the sum of the fluctuation amplitude of each component minus a value that is a function of the phase relationship between the pressure component fluctuations. Simulation results for different compressor designs are compared. Differences observed are primarily attributed to the amplitude of pressure fluctuation on the pressure side of the blade and the wavelength of the pressure disturbance propagating upstream. Lower pressure side pressure fluctuations are associated with a weaker pressure non-uniformity at the diffuser inlet as a result of a lower incidence angle into the diffuser. The wavelength of the pressure disturbance propagating upstream sets the domain on the blade surface in which the phase relationship between pressure component fluctuations is favorable. A longer wavelength increases the domain over which this phase relationship is such that the amplitude of unsteadiness is reduced. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computation for Design and Optimization Program, 2012.; Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 89-90). 2012-01-01T05:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72868 Multi-parameter estimation in glacier models with adjoint and algorithmic differentiation Davis, Andrew D. (Andrew Donaldson) The cryosphere is comprised of about 33 million km³ of ice, which corresponds to 70 meters of global mean sea level equivalent [30]. Simulating continental ice masses, such as the Antarctic or Greenland Ice Sheets, requires computational models capturing abrupt changes in ice sheet dynamics, which are still poorly understood. Input parameters, such as basal drag and topography, have large effects on the applied stress and flow fields but whose direct observation is very difficult, if not impossible. Computational methods are designed to aid in the development of ice sheet models, ideally identifying the relative importance of each parameter and formulating inverse methods to infer uncertain parameters and thus constrain ice sheet flow. Efficient computation of the tangent linear and adjoint models give researchers easy access to model derivatives. The adjoint and tangent linear models enable efficient global sensitivity computation and parameter optimization on unknown or uncertain ice sheet properties, information used to identify model properties having large effects on sea-level. The adjoint equations are not always easily obtained analytically and often require discretizing additional PDE's. Algorithmic differentiation (AD) decomposes the model into a composite of elementary operations (+, -, *, /, etc ... ) and a source-to-source transformation generates code for the Jacobian and its transpose for each operations. Derivatives computed using the tangent linear and adjoint models, with code generated by AD, are applied to parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of simple glacier models. AD is applied to two examples, equations describing changes in borehole temperature over time and instantaneous ice velocities. Borehole model predictions and data are compared to infer paleotemperatures, geothermal heat flux, and physical ice properties. Inversion using adjoint methods and AD increases the control space, allowing inference for all uncertain parameters. The sensitivities of ice velocities to basal friction and basal topography are compared. The basal topography has significantly larger sensitivities, suggesting it plays a larger role in flow dynamics and future work should seek to invert for this parameter. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computation for Design and Optimization Program, 2012.; Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 75-77). 2012-01-01T05:00:00Z