Towards a forecasting model of energy politics: International Perspectives

Abstract

Almost everyone recognizes an energy problem but uncertainties remain about its political and economic implications, both domestic and international. Indeed, there is disagreement on the extent to which it is a crisis. The spectrum of opinion ranges from those who argue the present situation is due largely to shortages of supplies and impending depletion of oil reserves (Akins 1973). to those who maintain the crisis is artificial, created mainly by induced departures from perfect market conditions (Adelman 1972). Both groups agree the United States and the industrialized world face a problem, but the definition and solution of the problem remain much debated.