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A short-range forecasting and inventory strategy for new product launches

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dc.contributor.advisor Donald B. Rosenfield and Jérémie Gallien. en_US
dc.contributor.author Cheung, Christine en_US
dc.contributor.other Leaders for Manufacturing Program. en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2006-11-08T16:48:08Z
dc.date.available 2006-11-08T16:48:08Z
dc.date.copyright 2005 en_US
dc.date.issued 2005 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/34844
dc.description Thesis (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Chemical Engineering; in conjunction with the Leaders for Manufacturing Program at MIT, 2005. en_US
dc.description Includes bibliographical references (p. 75-76). en_US
dc.description.abstract Companies like Procter & Gamble that operate on a make-to-stock strategy use forecasts to drive their manufacturing, selling, and buying processes. Because forecasting future demand is not an exact science, inventory management models have been developed to accommodate these uncertainties. There has been a significant improvement in inventory management of base products, where forecasts are based on historical sales information. Because the bulk of forecasting methods depend on this use of historical data, little effort to date has been focused on inventory management of a new product. The use of traditional time- series forecasting methods is not realistic and companies typically resort to using judgmental or analogous (e.g. curve-fitting) means, which are less applicable in making short-range production and inventory decisions. The lack of a new product forecasting method poses a significant problem in the cosmetic industry, which faces an increasing dependence on the introduction of new products for sales growth. Inventory and supply chain management is made even more difficult by the short product-life cycle, long lead times, and complexity and number of SKUs. As the industry trends toward increasing the pace of new product launches, forecast accuracy of a new product in its initial launch stages becomes more critical to manage the supply network's inventory and capacity. This document outlines a supply strategy for new product introductions that improves information management in the forecasting process to optimize supply and inventory planning. en_US
dc.description.abstract (cont.) This method is designed to improve product pipeline forecasts as well as basic replenishment forecasts in the first few months of a product's launch. The model was tested and validated by historical simulations on a cosmetic product line. Results showed significant inventory reductions compared to current inventory management policies. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Christine Cheung. en_US
dc.format.extent 76 p. en_US
dc.format.extent 3928460 bytes
dc.format.extent 3931566 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.rights M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. en_US
dc.rights.uri http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582
dc.subject Sloan School of Management. en_US
dc.subject Chemical Engineering. en_US
dc.subject Leaders for Manufacturing Program. en_US
dc.title A short-range forecasting and inventory strategy for new product launches en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US
dc.description.degree S.M. en_US
dc.description.degree M.B.A. en_US
dc.contributor.department Sloan School of Management. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Chemical Engineering. en_US
dc.contributor.department Leaders for Manufacturing Program. en_US
dc.identifier.oclc 63199379 en_US


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