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Browsing Center for Global Change Science by Title

Research and Teaching Output of the MIT Community

Browsing Center for Global Change Science by Title

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  • A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change 
    Monier, Erwan; Gao, Xiang; Scott, Jeffery; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, C. Adam (MIT Joint Program, 2013-05)
    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...
  • From science to policy : the science-related politics of climate change policy in the U.S. 
    Skolnikoff, Eugene B. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1999-01)
    Global climate change is on the political agenda primarily as a result of science and the warnings of the scientific community, and is commonly seen as a quintessentially scientific matter. However, the development of ...
  • Future Carbon Regulations and Current Investments in Alternative Coal-Fired Power Plant Designs 
    Sekar, Ram C.; Parsons, John E.; Herzog, Howard J.; Jacoby, Henry D. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005-12)
    This paper assesses the role of uncertainty over future U.S. carbon regulations in shaping the current choice of which type of power plant to build. The pulverized coal technology (PC) still offer the lowest cost power— ...
  • The Future Energy and GHG Emissions Impact of Alternative Personal Transportation Pathways in China 
    Kishimoto, P.N.; Paltsev, S.; Karplus, V.J. (Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012-10)
    A major uncertainty in future energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections for China is the evolution of demand for personal transportation modes. This paper explores the implications of divergent personal ...
  • The Future of Global Water Stress: An Integrated Assessment 
    Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Gao, Xiang; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Paltsev, Sergey; Rasheed, Bilhuda; Smith-Greico, Tony; Blanc, Elodie; Jacoby, Henry D.; Reilly, John M. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2014-01)
    We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 large river basins or Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements over the coming decades under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth ...
  • The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy 
    Zhang, Danwei; Paltsev, Sergey (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2016-03)
    China is currently attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase natural gas consumption as a part of broader national strategies to reduce the air pollution impacts of the nation’s energy system. To assess ...
  • The Future of U.S. Natural Gas Production, Use, and Trade 
    Paltsev, Sergey; Jacoby, Henry D.; Reilly, John M.; Ejaz, Q.J.; O’Sullivan, F.; Morris, Jennifer; Rausch, Sebastian; Winchester, Niven; Kragha, O. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2010-06)
    Two computable general equilibrium models, one global and the other providing U.S. regional detail, are applied to analysis of the future of U.S. natural gas as an input to an MIT study of the topic. The focus is on ...
  • Future United States Energy Security Concerns 
    Deutch, John M. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004-09)
    Without energy, the economy can neither function nor grow. However, for at least the next half-century, the U.S. will not have an inexhaustible supply of inexpensive, clean energy. Dependence on energy imports, vulnerability ...
  • Future Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data? 
    Gitiaux, Xavier; Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-05)
    The potential future role of biofuels has become an important topic in energy legislation as it is seen as a potential low carbon alternative to conventional fuels. Hence, future yield growth is an important topic from ...
  • A game of climate chicken : can EPA regulate greenhouse gases before the U.S. Senate ratifies the Kyoto Protocol? 
    Bugnion, Véronique.; Reiner, David M. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1999-11)
    EPA's legal authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act is reviewed. While EPA clearly does not have the authority to implement the precise terms of the Kyoto Protocol, arguments could be put ...
  • General Equilibrium, Electricity Generation Technologies and the Cost of Carbon Abatement 
    Lanz, Bruno, 1980-; Rausch, Sebastian (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-02)
    Electricity generation is a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions, and a key determinant of abatement costs. Ex-ante assessments of carbon policies mainly rely on either of two modeling paradigms: (i) partial ...
  • Global Aerosol Health Impacts: Quantifying Uncertainties 
    Selin, Noelle E.; Paltsev, Sergey; Wang, Chien; Donkelaar, A. van; Martin, R.V. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-08)
    Atmospheric fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) can cause cardiovasculatory and respiratory damages and mortalities. Assessing population exposure to and damages from PM2.5 is important for policy, but measurement ...
  • Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone 
    Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey.; Felzer, Benjamin Seth.; Wang, Xiaodong.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Wang, Chien. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007-05)
    Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the ...
  • Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution 
    Webster, Mort D.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M.; Nam, Kyung-Min; Wu, Shiliang; Selin, Noelle E. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009-08)
    We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the ...
  • A global interactive chemistry and climate model : formulation and testing 
    Wang, Chien.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sokolov, Andrei P. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-09)
  • A Global Land System Framework for Integrated Climate-Change Assessments 
    Schlosser, C. Adam; Kicklighter, David; Sokolov, Andrei (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007-05)
    Land ecosystems play a major role in the global cycles of energy, water, carbon and nutrients. A Global Land System (GLS) framework has been developed for the Integrated Global Systems Model Version 2 (IGSM2) to simulate ...
  • Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective 
    Lanz, B.; Dietz, S.; Swanson, T. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2015-10)
    We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The ...
  • Global warming projections : sensitivity to deep ocean mixing 
    Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-09)
    The climatological impact of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, despite being a subject of intensive study in recent years, is still very uncertain. One major uncertainty affecting possible climate ...
  • Green Growth and the Efficient Use of Natural Resources 
    Reilly, John (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012-06-14)
    The relatively new concept of "green growth" can be fruitfully connected to concepts and theories in neoclassical economics including market externalities, Ricardian and Hotelling rents, and policies that would correct ...
  • Greenhouse Gas Mitigation as a Structural Change and Policies that Offset Its Depressing Effects 
    Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Eckaus, Richard S. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006-07)
    The current economic modeling of emissions limitations does not embody economic features that are likely to be particularly important in the short term, yet the politics of limiting greenhouse gas emissions are often ...
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