Browsing Center for Global Change Science by Title

Now showing items 258-277 of 337

    • Probabilistic projections of the future climate for the world and the continental USA 

      Sokolov, A.; Gao, X.; Paltsev, S.; Monier, E.; Chen, H.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2017-09)
      In this paper, we study possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the 21st century climate on the continental USA using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework. Climate change ...

    • Process Modeling of Global Soil Nitrous Oxide Emissions 

      Saikawa, E.; Schlosser, C.A.; Prinn, R.G. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-09-01)
      Nitrous oxide is an important greenhouse gas and is a major ozone-depleting substance. To understand and quantify soil nitrous oxide emissions, we expanded the Community Land Model with prognostic Carbon and Nitrogen ...

    • A Process-based Analysis of Methane Exchanges Between Alaskan Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere 

      Zhuang, Qianlai.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Prinn, Ronald G.; McGuire, A. David.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2003-11)
      We developed and used a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in Alaskan soils have changed over the past century in response to observed changes ...

    • The Prospects for Coal-To-Liquid Conversion: A General Equilibrium Analysis 

      Chen, Y.-H. Henry; Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-05)
      We investigate the economics of coal-to-liquid (CTL) conversion, a polygeneration technology that produces liquid fuels, chemicals, and electricity by coal gasification and Fischer-Tropsch process. CTL is more expensive ...

    • Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis 

      Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey; Karplus, Valerie J. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009-04)
      The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low carbon alternative to today's gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition ...

    • Protection of Coastal Infrastructure under Rising Flood Risk 

      Lickley, M.J.; Lin, N.; Jacoby, H.D. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2013-03)
      The 2005 hurricane season was particularly damaging to the United States, contributing to significant losses to energy infrastructure—much of it the result of flooding from storm surge during hurricanes Katrina and Rita. ...

    • Quantifying Regional Economic Impacts of CO2 Intensity Targets in China 

      Zhang, Da; Rausch, Sebastian; Karplus, Valerie; Zhang, Xiliang (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012-09-01)
      To address rising energy use and CO2 emissions, China’s leadership has enacted energy and CO2 intensity targets under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), which are defined at both the national and provincial levels. ...

    • Quantifying the Likelihood of Regional Cimate Change: A hybridized Approach 

      Schlosser, C. Adam; Forest, C.; Awadalla, S.; Farmer, W.; Gao, X.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-09)
      The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change calls for increased capability in climate projections: the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation ...

    • Quantifying the uncertainty in climate predictions 

      Webster, Mort David.; Sokolov, Andrei P. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1998-07)

    • Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties using recent climate observations 

      Forest, Chris Eliot.; Stone, Peter H.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Allen, Myles R.; Webster, Mort David. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2001-07)
      We apply the optimal fingerprint detection algorithm to three independent diagnostics of the recent climate record and derive joint probability density distributions for three uncertain properties of the climate system. ...

    • Regulatory Control of Vehicle and Power Plant Emissions: How Effective and at What Cost? 

      Paltsev, S.; Karplus, V.; Chen, Y.-H.H.; Karkatsouli, I.; Reilly, J.M.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program, 2013-10)
      Passenger vehicles and power plants are major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. While economic analyses generally indicate that a broader market-based approach to greenhouse gas reduction would be less costly and more ...

    • Relative role of changes in CO₂ and climate to equilibrium responses of net primary production and carbon storage of the terrestrial biosphere 

      Xiao, Xiangming.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; McGuire, A. David.; Stone, Peter H.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-06)
      In a partial factorial model experiment, we used the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, version 4.0) to assess the relative roles of changes in CO2, temperature, precipitation and cloudiness in equilibrium responses of ...

    • Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change 

      Scott, Jeffery R.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Webster, Mort D. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007-05)
      The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3D ocean subcomponent. Parameters ...

    • Renewables Intermittency: Operational Limits and Implications for Long-Term Energy System Models 

      Delarue, E.; Morris, J. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2015-03)
      In several regions of the world, the share of intermittent renewables (such as wind and solar PV) in electricity generation is rapidly increasing. The current share of these renewable energy sources (RES) can still more ...

    • Representing energy technologies in top-down economic models using bottom-up information 

      McFarland, James R.; Reilly, John M.; Herzog, Howard J. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2002-10)
      This paper uses bottom-up engineering information as a basis for modeling new technologies within the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. ...

    • Responses of primary production and total carbon storage to changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration 

      Xiao, Xiangming.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, Jerry M.; McGuire, A. David.; Stone, Peter H.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1995-10)
      The authors used the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM, version 4.0) to estimate global responses of annual net primary production (NPP) and total carbon storage to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2, driven by the ...

    • Rethinking the Kyoto emission targets 

      Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Eckaus, Richard S. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2000-08)

    • The Revenue Implications of a Carbon Tax 

      Yuan, M.; Metcalf, G.E.; Reilly, J.; Paltsev, S. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2017-07)
      A primary reason for implementing a carbon or greenhouse gas tax is to reduce emissions, but in recent years there has been increased interest in a carbon tax’s revenue potential. This revenue could be used for federal ...

    • A Review of and Perspectives on Global Change Modeling for Northern Eurasia 

      Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D.; Sokolov, A.; Zhuang, Q.; Sokolik, I.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2017-05)
      Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ...

    • The Role of China in Mitigating Climate Change 

      Paltsev, S.; Morris, J.; Cai, Y.; Karplus, V.; Jacoby, H. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012-04)
      We explore short- and long-term implications of several energy scenarios of China’s role in efforts to mitigate global climate risk. The focus is on the impacts on China’s energy system and GDP growth, and on global climate ...