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Browsing Center for Global Change Science by Title

Research and Teaching Output of the MIT Community

Browsing Center for Global Change Science by Title

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  • Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2002-12)
    To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...
  • Holian, Gary L.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Prinn, Ronald G. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2001-09)
    Key uncertainties in the global carbon cycle are explored with a 2-D model for the oceanic carbon sink. By calibrating the key parameters of this ocean carbon sink model to widely referenced values, it produces an average ...
  • Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1994-12)
    Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...
  • Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2001-08)
    Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...
  • Webster, Mort David. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-11)
    In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties ...
  • Webster, Mort D.; Paltsev, Sergey; Parsons, John E.; Reilly, John M.; Jacoby, Henry D. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008-11)
    We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...
  • Sokolov, Andrei P.; Wang, Chien.; Holian, Gary L.; Stone, Peter H.; Prinn, Ronald G. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-09)
    The impact of uncertainty in the rate of heat and carbon uptake by the deep ocean on climate response to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations is studied by means of numerical simulations with the two-dimensional ...
  • Melillo, Jerry M.; Gurgel, Angelo C.; Kicklighter, David W.; Reilly, John M.; Cronin, Timothy W.; Felzer, Benjamin Seth.; Paltsev, Sergey; Schlosser, C. Adam.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Wang, Xiaodong (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009-01)
    Biofuels are being promoted as an important part of the global energy mix to meet the climate change challenge. The environmental costs of biofuels produced with current technologies at small scales have been studied, but ...
  • Jacoby, Henry D. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1998-11)
    The current misplaced focus on short-term climate policies is a product both of domestic political exigencies and badly flawed technical analyses. A prime example of the latter is a recent U.S. Department of Energy study, ...
  • Gurgel, Angelo C.; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M.; Metcalf, Gilbert E. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007-06)
    We develop a forward-looking version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the U.S. Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) ...
  • Webster, Mort David.; Paltsev, Sergey.; Reilly, John M. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006-02)
    This paper estimates the value of international emissions trading, focusing attention on a here-to-fore neglected component: its value as a hedge against uncertainty. Much analysis has been done of the Kyoto Protocol and ...
  • Reilly, John; Paltsev, Sergey; Selin, Noelle E.; Cai, Yongxia; Nam, Kyung-Min; Monier, Erwan; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Scott, Jeffrey; Webster, Mort; Sokolov, Andrei; Strzepek, Ken (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012-05-22)
    We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth’s physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. The features of the integrated global system framework ...
  • Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Viguier, Laurent L.; Reilly, John M.; Ellerman, A. Denny.; Criqui, Patrick. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2001-06)
    To what extent do the welfare costs associated with the implementation of the Burden Sharing Agreement in the European Union depend on sectoral allocation of emissions rights? What are the prospects for strategic climate ...
  • Jacoby, Henry D.; Schmalensee, Richard.; Reiner, David M. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-11)
    The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is applied to an exploration of the national emissions obligations that would be required to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at levels now under active ...
  • Pfaff, Alexander Strickland Putalik. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-12)
    This paper analyzes the determinants of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. From a model of optimal land use, it derives and then estimates a deforestation equation on country-level data for the period 1978 to 1988. The ...
  • Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M.; Sokolov, Andrei (MIT Joint Program, 2013-07-26)
    We offer simulations that help to understand the relationship between GHG emissions and concentrations, and the relative role of long-lived (e.g., CO2) and short-lived (e.g., CH4) emissions. We show that, absent technologies ...
  • Deutch, John M. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005-05)
    Government support of innovation—both technology creation and technology demonstration—is desirable to encourage private investors to adopt new technology. In this paper, I review the government role in encouraging technology ...
  • Gavard, Claire; Winchester, Niven; Jacoby, Henry D.; Paltsev, Sergey (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-02)
    In recent United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations, sectoral mechanisms were proposed as a way to encourage early action and spur investment in low carbon technologies in developing ...
  • Reilly, John; Paltsev, Sergey; Winchester, Niven (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2010-02)
    The potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) restrictions in some nations to drive emission increases in other nations, or leakage, is a contentious issue in climate change negotiations. We evaluate the potential for border ...
  • Qi, Tianyu; Winchester, Niven; Karplus, Valerie J.; Zhang, Xiliang (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012-10)
    We calculate CO2 emissions embodied in China’s net exports using a multi-regional input-output database. We find that the majority of China’s export-embodied CO2 is associated with production of machinery and equipment ...
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