| dc.contributor.author |
Gurgel, Angelo C. |
|
| dc.contributor.author |
Reilly, John M. |
|
| dc.contributor.author |
Paltsev, Sergey. |
|
| dc.date.accessioned |
2008-05-07T16:28:57Z |
|
| dc.date.available |
2008-05-07T16:28:57Z |
|
| dc.date.issued |
2008-03 |
|
| dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41521 |
|
| dc.identifier.uri |
http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a155 |
|
| dc.description |
Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). |
en |
| dc.description.abstract |
In this paper we investigate the potential production and implications of a global biofuels industry. We
develop alternative approaches to the introduction of land as an economic factor input, in value and
physical terms, into a computable general equilibrium framework. Both approach allows us to
parameterize biomass production in a manner consistent with agro-engineering information on yields
and a “second generation” cellulosic biomass conversion technology. We explicitly model land
conversion from natural areas to agricultural use in two different ways: in one approach we introduce a
land supply elasticity based on observed land supply responses and in the other we consider only the
direct cost of conversion. We estimate biofuels production at the end of the century will reach 220 to 270
exajoules in a reference scenario and 320 to 370 exajoules under a global effort to mitigate greenhouse
gas emissions. The version with the land supply elasticity allows much less conversion of land from
natural areas, forcing intensification of production, especially on pasture and grazing land, whereas the
pure conversion cost model leads to significant deforestation. The observed land conversion response we
estimate may be a short-term response that does not fully reflect the effect of long-run pressure to convert
land if rent differentials are sustained over 100 years. These different approaches emphasize the
importance of reflecting the non-market value of land more fully in the modeling of the conversion
decision. |
en |
| dc.description.provenance |
Submitted by Anne Slinn (slinn@mit.edu) on 2008-05-07T16:28:57Z
No. of bitstreams: 1
MITJPSPGC_Rpt155.pdf: 974643 bytes, checksum: 6ad1e3fb60221f3c2137c0da19563bab (MD5) |
en |
| dc.description.provenance |
Made available in DSpace on 2008-05-07T16:28:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
MITJPSPGC_Rpt155.pdf: 974643 bytes, checksum: 6ad1e3fb60221f3c2137c0da19563bab (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2008-03 |
en |
| dc.description.sponsorship |
We acknowledge
funding support from the National Science Foundation Award BCS-0410344, Environmental
Protection Agency Agreement XA-83240101, Department of Energy, Integrated Assessment
Program in the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) grant DE-FG02-
94ER61937, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award NA16GP2290, and
industrial and foundation support through the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. |
en |
| dc.language.iso |
en_US |
en |
| dc.publisher |
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries |
Report no. 155 |
en |
| dc.title |
Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry |
en |
| dc.type |
Technical Report |
en |
| dc.identifier.citation |
Report no. 155 |
en |
