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Analysis and calibration of social factors in a consumer acceptance and adoption model for diffusion of diesel vehicle in Europe

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dc.contributor.advisor John D. Sterman. en_US
dc.contributor.author Zhang, Qi, S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.contributor.other Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2008-11-07T19:10:43Z
dc.date.available 2008-11-07T19:10:43Z
dc.date.copyright 2008 en_US
dc.date.issued 2008 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/43162
dc.description Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2008. en_US
dc.description Includes bibliographical references (p. 60-63). en_US
dc.description.abstract While large scale diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is widely anticipated, the mechanisms that determine their success or failure are ill understood. Analysis of an AFV transition model developed at MIT has revealed that AFV diffusion dynamics are particularly sensitive to consumer consideration as influenced by social exposure to AFVs. While some empirical research in this area exists, uncertainty regarding these social exposure parameters remains high. Following principles of partial model testing, this research examines social exposure parameters, with a focus on empirical accounts of diffusion involving diesel passenger vehicles in Europe. The research uses the historical data of diesel sales in six European countries. To complete diffusion datasets the research generates synthetic data in early stages of diffusion. The results from the calibrations yield parameters that are in line with other marketing studies. These findings help reduce uncertainty regarding social exposure parameters in the automotive industry. Further, bootstrapping confidence intervals are conducted to test the reliability of the parameter estimate. Challenges and avenues about building confidence in parameter estimate and data analysis are discussed. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Qi Zhang. en_US
dc.format.extent 63 p. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.rights M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. en_US
dc.rights.uri http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 en_US
dc.subject Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.title Analysis and calibration of social factors in a consumer acceptance and adoption model for diffusion of diesel vehicle in Europe en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US
dc.description.degree S.M. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.identifier.oclc 250606052 en_US


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