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Agent-based models of socio-hydrological systems for exploring the institutional dynamics of water resources conflict

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dc.contributor.advisor David Marks. en_US
dc.contributor.author Kock, Beaudry E. (Beaudry Evan) en_US
dc.contributor.other Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering. en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2009-01-26T22:00:54Z
dc.date.available 2009-01-26T22:00:54Z
dc.date.copyright 2008 en_US
dc.date.issued 2008 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/44199
dc.description Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2008. en_US
dc.description This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. en_US
dc.description Includes bibliographical references (p. 186-192). en_US
dc.description.abstract The Basins-At-Risk theory formulates relations between institutional capacity in a basin and the level of water conflict in that basin, suggesting that higher levels of institutional capacity will lead to reduced levels of water conflict in a given system. I test the substance of this theory using comparative, simulation-based analysis of water resources systems in the USA and Spain. I determine whether, given two artificial societies experiencing water conflict, expanding institutional capacity would indeed lead to reduced conflict levels. I develop and apply two agent-based models of society and hydrology: one for Albacete, Spain, and the other for the Snake River, eastern Idaho,USA. Each model incorporates essential elements of the regional society: real world actors are translated into proactive deliberative agents using a BDI framework; the hydrology/geology is represented either through use of pre-existing models, or basic hydrologic simulation; economic, societal and other dynamics are represented through additional databases and agent rule bases. I apply the models experimentally to explore the societal effects of adding an additional institution to the existing water resources management institutions: ground water banking, a new set of rules for agents to interact with their hydrologic system. I run both models over historical and projected time periods, testing out different scenarios of variation in internal and external agent environment to explore the detailed dynamics of each system. Results and analysis suggest that institutional capacity and water conflict dynamics are strongly related, but that the direction of influence can vary. I identify critical elements of the design of ground water banking institutions, when considering their potential success in mitigating conflict. en_US
dc.description.abstract (cont.) I also investigate the possibilities of engineering a universally portable sociohydrologic agent, and discover that while the concepts of the chosen cognitive architecture may be portable, it is effectively impossible to guarantee a fully portable technical implementation. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Beaudry E. Kock. en_US
dc.format.extent 192 p. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.rights M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. en_US
dc.rights.uri http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 en_US
dc.subject Civil and Environmental Engineering. en_US
dc.title Agent-based models of socio-hydrological systems for exploring the institutional dynamics of water resources conflict en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US
dc.description.degree S.M. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering. en_US
dc.identifier.oclc 269363803 en_US


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