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Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Research and Teaching Output of the MIT Community

Show simple item record Jacoby, Henry D. Prinn, Ronald G. Melillo, Jerry M. Sarofim, Marcus C. Kicklighter, David W. Wang, Chien Schlosser, C. Adam Paltsev, Sergey Forest, Chris Eliot Reilly, John M. Sokolov, Andrei P. Webster, Mort D. 2009-11-25T19:47:28Z 2009-11-25T19:47:28Z 2009-09
dc.description Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website ( en
dc.description.abstract Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response. en
dc.description.sponsorship This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors. en
dc.language.iso en_US en
dc.publisher MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change en
dc.relation.ispartofseries ;Report no. 180
dc.title Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty en
dc.type Technical Report en
dc.identifier.citation Report no. 180 en

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