World energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions : 1950-2050

Abstract

Emissions of carbon dioxide form combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period 1950-1990. We employ a flexible form for income effects, along with fixed time and country effects, and we handle forecast uncertainty explicitly. We find an "inverse-U" relation with a within-sample peak between carbon dioxide emissions (and energy use) per capita and per capita income. Using the income and population growth assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we obtain projections significantly and substantially above those of the IPCC.