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Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade

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Show simple item record Reilly, John M. en_US Hohmann, Neil en_US Kane, Sally en_US
dc.contributor.other Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. en_US 2009-12-16T00:00:58Z 2009-12-16T00:00:58Z 1993 en_US
dc.identifier 93012 en_US
dc.description.abstract Empirical estimates of the economic welfare implications of the impact of climate change on global agricultural production are made. Agricultural yield changes resulting from climate scenarios associated with a doubling of atmospheric trace gases are used as an input into a global model of agricultural supply and demand. The agricultural production, price and economic welfare implications for 32 separate geographic regions are computed for 9 scenarios. The 9 scenarios reported are based on 3 different general circulation models (GCMs), estimated with and without the direct effects of carbon dioxide on plant growth, and with different levels of adaptation. The major conclusions are that economic welfare losses tend to be more severe in developing countries, major agricultural exporters can gain significantly if world agricultural prices rise, and the carbon dioxide fertilization effect substantially offsets losses dut to climate change alone. In one scenario, the combination of carbon dioxide fertilization and adaptation led to net global welfare increases. Policy implications of the potential changes and uncertainty in the magnitude, direction , and timing of change are discussed. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Funded by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at M.I.T. en_US
dc.format.extent 37, 21, 20 p en_US
dc.publisher MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries MIT-CEEPR (Series) ; 93-012WP. en_US
dc.title Climate change and agriculture : global and regional effects using an economic model of international trade en_US
dc.type Working Paper en_US
dc.identifier.oclc 35721134 en_US

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