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Black Gold & Fool’s Gold: Speculation in the Oil Futures Market

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dc.contributor.author Parsons, John E.
dc.date.accessioned 2010-02-11T17:24:27Z
dc.date.available 2010-02-11T17:24:27Z
dc.date.issued 2009-09
dc.identifier.other 2009-013
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/51711
dc.description.abstract This paper addresses the question of whether the oil price spike of 2003-2008 was a bubble. We document and discuss what is known about the level of speculation in the paper oil market. We then analyze the dynamics of the term structure of futures prices, both during the earlier period of 1985-2002 and during the spike. The dynamics of the term structure changed in important ways during this latter period, and we explain how this may have contributed to generating a bubble. We also explain how this answers the puzzle of the lack of accumulating above-ground inventories. Finally, we discuss the implications for regulatory reform of the paper oil markets. en
dc.description.sponsorship Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. en
dc.language.iso en_US en
dc.publisher MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research en
dc.relation.ispartofseries MIT-CEEPR (Series);2009-013
dc.title Black Gold & Fool’s Gold: Speculation in the Oil Futures Market en
dc.type Working Paper en


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