A real options case study : The valuation of flexibility in the World Trade Center redevelopment

Abstract

This thesis will apply the past research and methodologies of Real Options to Tower 2 and Tower 3 of the World Trade Center redevelopment project in New York, NY. The qualitative component of the thesis investigates the history behind the stalled development of Towers 2 and 3 and examines a potential contingency that could have mitigated the market risk. The quantitative component builds upon that story and creates a hypothetical Real Options case as a framework for applying and valuing building use flexibility in a large-scale, politically charged, real estate development project. Through this demonstration, it is observed that applying Real Options "in" the World Trade Center Towers 2 and 3 projects minimizes losses in weaker markets and maximizes gains in stronger markets.