Abstract:
In this thesis, Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) and Electric Vehicle (EV) technology and their sales forecasts are discussed. First, the current limitations and the future potential of vehicle technology for HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs are investigated. Second, factors that have historically impacted vehicle sales in the United States are examined. The examination focuses on the effect of rising gasoline prices on the U.S. vehicle market for the periods which include three significant events involving gasoline prices: the Iran and Iraq war in 1979, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the recession of 2008. Finally, many parts of this thesis deal with sales forecasts of HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs up to 2030. While previous research used the unmodified Bass diffusion model or Generalized Bass model in order to examine the adoption rate of EVs, through using Norton-Bass Model and inserting Generalized Bass Model into Norton-Bass Model, this study seeks to overcome the limitation of Bass diffusion model, which has a fixed saturation level in order to generate more accurate projections.
Description:
Thesis (S.M. in System Design and Management)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 79-83).
