Uncertainties in energy technology assessments

Abstract

In order to make important contributions, energy technology assessments must be large, interdisciplinary projects, generally becoming very time consuming and expensive. This small project does not involve a large assessment, but instead combines several different types of investigations aimed at exploring the potential for, and significance of, uncertainty in the energy technology assessment process. First, a survey and discussion is presented of technology assessments, primarily from a methodological viewpoint. A general ideal methodology is developed and the potentials for incorporating uncertainties are described. Second, there is a detailed development of meteorology, demographic and health impact components, the key components in energy technology assessments. There is particular emphasis on the impacts of assumptions and potential methods for incorporating concepts of uncertainty. Finally there are included three small examples of energy technology assessments. These have been tailor-made to demonstrate the possibilities and importances of the concept of uncertainty in these assessments.