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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

Research and Teaching Output of the MIT Community

Show simple item record Knutson, Thomas R. McBride, John L. Chan, Johnny Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Holland, Greg Landsea, Chris Held, Isaac Kossin, James P. Srivastava, A. K. Sugi, Masato 2011-04-28T19:57:54Z 2011-04-28T19:57:54Z 2010-02 2010-01
dc.identifier.issn 1752-0908
dc.identifier.issn 1752-0894
dc.description.abstract Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship West Australian Government Indian Ocean Climate Initiative en_US
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher Nature Publishing Group en_US
dc.relation.isversionof en_US
dc.rights Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri en_US
dc.source Prof. Emanuel via Chris Sherratt en_US
dc.title Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.identifier.citation Knutson, Thomas R. et al. “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change.” Nature Geosci 3.3 (2010) : 157-163. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences en_US
dc.contributor.approver Emanuel, Kerry
dc.contributor.mitauthor Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
dc.relation.journal Nature Geoscience en_US
dc.identifier.mitlicense OPEN_ACCESS_POLICY en_US
dc.eprint.version Author's final manuscript en_US
dc.type.uri en_US
eprint.status en_US
dspace.orderedauthors Knutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny; Emanuel, Kerry; Holland, Greg; Landsea, Chris; Held, Isaac; Kossin, James P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Sugi, Masato en

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