Modelling risk in ATC operations with ground intervention

Abstract

Preface: It was part of a continuing series of research work aimed at creating models for estimating Collision Risk for ATC operations which can be used by the Federal Aviation Administration and ICAO to establish safe criteria for separations between aircraft.

Introduction: The purpose of this information paper is; a) to provide a document describing the problems of analyzing risk for ATC systems which have surveillance over air traffic and which allow ground controllers to intervene to avoid unsafe encounters; b) to propose a framework for future studies which attempt to solve these problems. The need for such methods of analyzing risk arises in justifying reduced ATC separation criteria which ensure safety for newer forms of ATC operations. The benefits of these new systems strongly depend on achieving a reduction in current ATC separations, and as a result, an increase in capacity and efficiency for aircraft operations. These benefits must be weighed against the costs of developing and operating the new ATC systems.