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Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS)

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dc.contributor.author Yamana, Teresa K.
dc.contributor.author Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
dc.date.accessioned 2012-04-12T20:04:11Z
dc.date.available 2012-04-12T20:04:11Z
dc.date.issued 2010-11
dc.date.submitted 2010-07
dc.identifier.issn 1475-2875
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/70008
dc.description.abstract Background Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. Methods HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Results Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone. Conclusions HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship National Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant EAR-0946280) en_US
dc.description.sponsorship National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant EAR-0824398) en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Sixth Framework Programme (European Commission) en_US
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher Springer (Biomed Central Ltd.) en_US
dc.relation.isversionof http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-9-323 en_US
dc.rights Creative Commons Attribution en_US
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 en_US
dc.source BioMed Central en_US
dc.title Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS) en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.identifier.citation Yamana, Teresa K, and Elfatih AB Eltahir. “Early Warnings of the Potential for Malaria Transmission in Rural Africa Using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS).” Malaria Journal 9.1 (2010): 323. Web. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering en_US
dc.contributor.approver Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
dc.contributor.mitauthor Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
dc.contributor.mitauthor Yamana, Teresa K.
dc.relation.journal Malaria Journal en_US
dc.identifier.mitlicense PUBLISHER_CC en_US
dc.eprint.version Final published version en_US
dc.type.uri http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle en_US
eprint.status http://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerReviewed en_US
dspace.orderedauthors Yamana, Teresa K; Eltahir, Elfatih AB en


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