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The Role of China in Mitigating Climate Change

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dc.contributor.author Paltsev, S.
dc.contributor.author Morris, J.
dc.contributor.author Cai, Y.
dc.contributor.author Karplus, V.
dc.contributor.author Jacoby, H.
dc.date.accessioned 2012-05-10T15:29:49Z
dc.date.available 2012-05-10T15:29:49Z
dc.date.issued 2012-04
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/70563
dc.description http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/2265 en_US
dc.description.abstract We explore short- and long-term implications of several energy scenarios of China’s role in efforts to mitigate global climate risk. The focus is on the impacts on China’s energy system and GDP growth, and on global climate indicators such as greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, and global temperature change. We employ the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We demonstrate that China’s commitments for 2020, made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun, are reachable at very modest cost. Alternative actions by China in the next 10 years do not yield any substantial changes in GHG concentrations or temperature due to inertia in the climate system. Consideration of the longer-term climate implications of the Copenhagen-type of commitments requires an assumption about policies after 2020, and the effects differ drastically depending on the case. Meeting a 2°C target is problematic unless radical GHG emission reductions are assumed in the short-term. Participation or non-participation of China in global climate architecture can lead by 2100 to a 200–280 ppm difference in atmospheric GHG concentration, which can result in a 1.1°C to 1.3°C change by the end of the century. We conclude that it is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies, and alternative actions lead to substantial differences in climate, energy, and economic outcomes. Potential channels for engaging China can be air pollution control and involvement in sectoral trading with established emissions trading systems in developed countries. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries Joint Program Report Series;215
dc.rights An error occurred on the license name. en
dc.rights.uri An error occurred getting the license - uri. en
dc.title The Role of China in Mitigating Climate Change en_US
dc.type Technical Report en_US
dc.identifier.citation Report no. 215 en_US


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