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A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants

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dc.contributor.advisor Ignacio J. Prez Arriaga and Carlos Batlle. en_US
dc.contributor.author Leung, Tommy (Tommy Chun Ting) en_US
dc.contributor.other Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2012-09-13T19:00:12Z
dc.date.available 2012-09-13T19:00:12Z
dc.date.copyright 2012 en_US
dc.date.issued 2012 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72895
dc.description Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)-- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2012. en_US
dc.description Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. en_US
dc.description Includes bibliographical references (p. 73-74). en_US
dc.description.abstract The growth of renewables in power systems has reinvigorated research and regulatory interest in reliability analysis algorithms such as the Baleriaux/Booth convolution-based probabilistic production cost (PPC) model. However, while these traditional PPC algorithms can reasonably represent thermal plant availabilities, they do not accurately represent limited energy plants because of their generic treatment of time. In particular, in systems with limited energy plants, convolution-based PPC models tend to underestimate the loss-of-load probability and expected nonserved energy. This thesis illustrates the chronological challenges of the traditional convolution-based PPC, proposes a modification that improves the representation of chronological elements, explores the reliability contribution of LEPs using the new algorithm, and demonstrates two regulatory applications by calculating a capacity payment for an LEP and the expected-load-carrying-capability metric for any generator. To the best knowledge of the author, the introduction of multiple hydro plants with different capacity constraints and the calculations for marginal probabilities, prices, and revenues to a chronological PPC model are novel. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Tommy Leung. en_US
dc.format.extent 74 p. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.rights M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. en_US
dc.rights.uri http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 en_US
dc.subject Engineering Systems Division. en_US
dc.subject Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.title A chronological probabilistic production cost model to evaluate the reliability contribution of limited energy plants en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US
dc.description.degree S.M.in Technology and Policy en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program. en_US
dc.identifier.oclc 808482742 en_US


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