A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty and its Mitigation and Exploitation in Complex Systems

Abstract

A framework to aid in the understanding of uncertainties and techniques for mitigating and even taking positive advantage of them is presented. The framework is an attempt to clarify the wide range of uncertainties that affect complex systems, the risks (and opportunities) they create, the strategies system architects can use to mitigate (or take advantage) of them, and the resulting system attributes. Current and developing methods for dealing with uncertainties are projected onto the framework to understand their relative roles and interactions.