Abstract:
This thesis presents a Markov chain model of the transmission of financial crises. Using bilateral trade data and a measure of exchange market pressure, it develops a method to determine a set of transition probabilities that describe the crisis transmission dynamics. The dynamics are characterized by one month conditional crisis probabilities and the probability of a crisis occurring within one year. Calculations of the transition probabilities for a three country example suggest that minor trading partners can increase the likelihood of a crisis in the home country through their effect on major trading partners.
Description:
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2002.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 57-58).
