General equilibrium impacts of new energy technologies on sectoral energy usage
Name
924307411-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
1.99 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
1fe8c0529af1a878cc6b36374900d88a
Author(s)
Ramberg, David J. (David John)
Advisor(s)
John E. Parsons.
Date Issued
2015
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
The dissertation examines conditions under which gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology penetration shifts the crude oil-natural gas price ratio. Empirical research finds long-run relationships between crude oil and natural gas prices. Some studies include time trends that steadily evolve the pricing relationship, while others show a long-run relationship that occasionally shifts significantly. A common hypothesis is that technologies that increase substitutability or complementarity between fuels are the source of the price linkage. However, empirically measuring the effects of a gradually-penetrating technology across narrow time frames is not possible due to intervening economic shocks. This thesis examines the effects of an energy conversion technology penetration on the crude oil-natural gas price ratio through its influence on sectoral energy use in the U.S. GTL must be less expensive and more efficient, and natural gas prices must be lower, than currently forecast for an effect to be measured. In the absence of a technology that explicitly allows for substitution between natural gas and petroleum-based fuels, different rates of demand growth result in a steadily-rising oil-gas price ratio. If a viable GTL technology successfully competes against petroleum-derived refined fuels, it dampens crude oil price increases and brings the oil-gas price ratio below the levels found in cases without a viable GTL technology.
Description
Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2015.
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 185-198).
Subjects
Engineering Systems Division.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
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