A system dynamics model for analyzing bubble effects in the long distance telecom industry
Name
56556921-MIT.pdf
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Full printable version
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5.24 MB
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Author(s)
Kurebayashi, Rintaro, 1973-
Advisor(s)
Nathaniel Osgood and Sharon Eisner Gillett.
Date Issued
2004
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
This thesis focuses on analyses of the long distance telecom service industry in US market by a system dynamics model to analyze bubble effects. The bubble effects have not been fully analyzed from the structural perspectives, although a lot of articles and papers partially explain the bubble effect. In this thesis, the system dynamics model of capacity expansion process, pricing, demand, cost, and decision making for new fiber installation is constructed by investigating the industrial structure. The model was analyzed, key factors for the bubble were identified, and their impact on the dynamics was captured. Through the analysis, I found that the fiber glut occurred by the fact that a temporal demand soar induced by the emergence of the Internet technologies leaded the telecom service providers to estimate the future demand wrongly, and the error was amplified by the long planning horizon which is economically plausible policy for each provider. I also found that the revenue reduced in the late stage of the bubble since the competitiveness in the industry stimulated price war.
Description
Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2004.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 94-95).
Subjects
Management of Technology Program.
MIT Department
Management of Technology Program.
Sloan School of Management
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