Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks
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Armour-2013-Time-Varying Climate.pdf
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2.45 MB
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Author(s)
Bitz, Cecilia M.
Roe, Gerard H.
Armour, Kyle
Date Issued
July 2013
Journal
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Armour, Kyle C., Cecilia M. Bitz, and Gerard H. Roe. “Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks.” J. Climate 26, no. 13 (July 2013): 4518–4534. © 2013 American Meteorological Society
Version
Final published version
Abstract
The sensitivity of global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms of the global climate feedback—the global radiative response per degree of global annual mean surface temperature change. While the global climate feedback is often assumed to be constant, its value—diagnosed from global climate models—shows substantial time variation under transient warming. Here a reformulation of the global climate feedback in terms of its contributions from regional climate feedbacks is proposed, providing a clear physical insight into this behavior. Using (i) a state-of-the-art global climate model and (ii) a low-order energy balance model, it is shown that the global climate feedback is fundamentally linked to the geographic pattern of regional climate feedbacks and the geographic pattern of surface warming at any given time. Time variation of the global climate feedback arises naturally when the pattern of surface warming evolves, actuating feedbacks of different strengths in different regions. This result has substantial implications for the ability to constrain future climate changes from observations of past and present climate states. The regional climate feedbacks formulation also reveals fundamental biases in a widely used method for diagnosing climate sensitivity, feedbacks, and radiative forcing—the regression of the global top-of-atmosphere radiation flux on global surface temperature. Further, it suggests a clear mechanism for the “efficacies” of both ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00544.1
