Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response
Name
MITJPSPGC_Rpt95.pdf
Size
316.98 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
c69029cf04f4abda6df5670f0ffb4895
Date Issued
December 2002
Publisher
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Series/Report no.
Report no. 95
Abstract
To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in climate projections under two different policy scenarios. This study illustrates an internally consistent uncertainty analysis of one climate assessment modeling framework, propagating uncertainties in both economic and climate components, and constraining climate parameter uncertainties based on observation. We find that in the absence of greenhouse gas emissions restrictions, there is a one in forty chance that global mean surface temperature change will exceed 4.9 degrees C by the year 2100. A policy case with aggressive emissions reductions over time lowers the temperature change to a one in forty chance of exceeding 3.2 degrees C, thus reducing but not eliminating the chance of substantial warming.
Description
Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Website. (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)
Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-21).
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