The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China's Changing Nuclear Posture
Name
isec_a_00457.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
185.66 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
cea5e0144b6ed4ad2f9eb764d418fcea
Author(s)
Hiim, Henrik Stålhane
Fravel, M Taylor
Trøan, Magnus Langset
Date Issued
January 4, 2023
Journal
International Security
Publisher
MIT Press
Citation
Henrik Stålhane Hiim, M. Taylor Fravel, Magnus Langset Trøan; The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China's Changing Nuclear Posture. International Security 2023; 47 (4): 147–187.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Amid an intensifying rivalry with the United States, China is modernizing and significantly expanding its nuclear forces. These developments fuel concerns that China's traditional nuclear strategy premised on a limited nuclear arsenal for assured retaliation and a no-first-use policy is undergoing a major shift. Using Chinese-language materials, an examination of Chinese debates about China's security environment and the future direction of its nuclear strategy finds that a nuclear-conventional entangled security dilemma is emerging between the United States and China. The shift in the conventional balance of force in the region and the U.S. development of lower-yield nuclear weapons has led to greater fears in China of U.S. limited nuclear use in a conflict. Chinese strategists increasingly believe that U.S. nonnuclear strategic capabilities threaten China's nuclear forces. Although there is limited evidence of a shift in its nuclear strategy, China is changing its strategic posture to ensure its second-strike capability, including by relying on advanced conventional weapons (e.g., counterspace capabilities, cyber weapons, and electronic warfare) that can target U.S. missile defense. The dynamics of an entangled security dilemma may weaken arms race stability, and they underscore why it will be challenging for the United States to engage China in nuclear arms control.
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00457
