Risk allocation for temporal risk assessment
Name
871037953-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
3.17 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
541f36e63c5868860f86352e6e7be357
Author(s)
Wang, Andrew J
Advisor(s)
Brian C. Williams.
Date Issued
2013
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Temporal uncertainty arises when performing any activity in the natural world. When activities are composed into temporal plans, then, there is a risk of not meeting the plan requirements. Currently, we do not have quantitatively precise methods for assessing temporal risk of a plan. Existing methods that deal with temporal uncertainty either forgo probabilistic models or try to optimize a single objective, rather than satisfy multiple objectives. This thesis offers a method for evaluating whether a schedule exists that meets a set of temporal constraints, with acceptable risk of failure. Our key insight is to assume a form of risk allocation to each source of temporal uncertainty in our plan, such that we may reformulate the probabilistic plan into an STNU parameterized on the risk allocation. We show that the problem becomes a deterministic one of finding a risk allocation which implies a schedulable STNU within acceptable risk. By leveraging the principles behind STNU analysis, we derive conditions which encode this problem as a convex feasibility program over risk allocations. Furthermore, these conditions may be learned incrementally as temporal conflicts. Thus, to boost computational efficiency, we employ a generate-and-test approach to determine whether a schedule may be found.
Description
Thesis: M. Eng., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2013.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 63-64).
Subjects
Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Terms of Use
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