The Nonproliferation Emperor Has No Clothes
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Kemp-2014-The nonproliferation.pdf
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201.46 KB
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Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
35164289615098f3ce1d3752b00032c4
Author(s)
Kemp, Ronald S.
Date Issued
April 2014
Journal
International Security
Publisher
MIT Press
Citation
Kemp, R. Scott. “The Nonproliferation Emperor Has No Clothes.” International Security 38, no. 4 (April 2014): 39–78.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Technology has been long understood to play a central role in limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Evolving nuclear technology, increased access to information, and systematic improvements in design and manufacturing tools, however, should in time ease the proliferation challenge. Eventually, even developing countries could possess a sufficient technical ability. There is evidence that this transition has already occurred. The basic uranium-enrichment gas centrifuge, developed in the 1960s, has technical characteristics that are within reach of nearly all states, without foreign assistance or access to export-controllable materials. The history of centrifuge development in twenty countries supports this perspective, as do previously secret studies carried out by the governments of the United States and the United Kingdom. Complicating matters, centrifuges also have properties that make the detection of a clandestine program enormously difficult. If conditions for the clandestine and indigenous production of weapons have emerged, then nonproliferation institutions focused on technology will be inadequate. Although it would represent a near-foundational shift in nuclear security policy, the changed technology landscape may now necessitate a return to institutions focused instead on motivations.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00159
