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Modeling and Parameter Estimation of Hurricane Wind Fields with Asymmetry
Name
[15588432 - Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology] Modeling and Parameter Estimation of Hurricane Wind Fields with Asymmetry.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
2.01 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
34d81bce7bc1b1658827da32ad8d4787
Author(s)
Chang, Derek
Amin, Saurabh
Emanuel, Kerry
Date Issued
2020
Journal
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Version
Final published version
Abstract
© 2020 American Meteorological Society. This article presents an azimuthally asymmetric gradient hurricane wind field model that can be coupled with hurricane-track models for engineering wind risk assessments. The model incorporates low-wavenumber asymmetries into the maximum wind intensity parameter of the Holland et al. wind field model. The am-plitudes and phases of the asymmetries are parametric functions of the storm-translation speed and wind shear. Model parameters are estimated by solving a constrained, nonlinear least squares (CNLS) problem that minimizes the sum of squared residuals between wind field intensities of historical storms and model-estimated winds. There are statistically significant wavenumber-1 asymmetries in the wind field resulting from both storm translation and wind shear. Adding the translation vector to the wind field model with wavenumber-1 asymmetries further improves the model’s estimation performance. In addition, inclusion of the wavenumber-1 asymmetry resulting from translation results in a greater decrease in modeling error than does inclusion of the wavenumber-1 shear-induced asymmetry. Overall, the CNLS estimation method can handle the inherently nonlinear wind field model in a flexible manner; thus, it is well suited to capture the radial variability in the hurricane wind field’s asymmetry. The article concludes with brief remarks on how the CNLS-estimated model can be applied for simulating wind fields in a statistically generated ensemble.
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0126.1
