Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations
Name
[Wils, Kamiya, Choucri] 1998 Threats to sustainability.pdf
Description
Final published version.
Size
361.68 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
555a0216d9f4f79148114b12db3f267f
Author(s)
Wils, Annababette
Kamiya, Matilde
Choucri, Nazli
Date Issued
March 1998
Publisher
© 1998 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Citation
Wils, A., Kamiya, M. & Choucri, N. (1998). Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations. System Dynamics Review, 14, 129–162.
Version
Final published version.
Abstract
Violent conflict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that affect sustainable development also influence conflict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while conflict, in turn, affects these variables. The theory is tested with a system dynamics model that includes international as well as domestic violent conflict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show a number of situations in which con flict is perpetuated in a cycle that is difficult to break.
Terms of Use
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States
