Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology
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Eltahir_Uncertainty in modeled.pdf
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Author(s)
Winter, Jonathan M.
Yeh, Pat J.-F.
Fu, Xiaojing
Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
Date Issued
April 2015
Journal
Water Resources Research
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Winter, Jonathan M. et al. “Uncertainty in Modeled and Observed Climate Change Impacts on American Midwest Hydrology: Climate Change Impacts on American Midwest Hydrology.” Water Resources Research 51.5 (2015): 3635–3646. © 2015 American Geophysical Union
Version
Final published version
Abstract
An important potential consequence of climate change is the modification of the water cycle in agricultural areas, such as the American Midwest. Soil moisture is the integrand of the water cycle, reflecting dynamics of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff in space and time, and a key determinant of yield. Here we present projected changes in the hydrologic cycle over a representative area of the American Midwest from regional climate model experiments that sample a range of model configurations. While significant summer soil moisture drying is predicted in some ensemble members, others predict soil moisture wetting, with the sign of soil moisture response strongly influenced by choice of boundary conditions. To resolve the contradictory predictions of soil moisture across ensemble members, we assess an extensive and unique observational data set of the water budget in Illinois. No statistically significant monotonic trends are found in observed soil moisture, precipitation, streamflow, groundwater level, or 2 m air temperature over a recent 26 year period (soil moisture 25 years). Based on this analysis of model simulations and observations, we conclude that the sign of climate change impacts on the regional hydrology of the American Midwest remains uncertain.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014wr016056
