Predicting Remission Among Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Starting Tocilizumab Monotherapy: Model Derivation and Remission Score Development
Name
acr2.11101.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
309.8 KB
Format
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Checksum (MD5)
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Author(s)
Collins, Jamie E.
Johansson, Fredrik D.
Gale, Sara
Kim, Seoyoung
Shrestha, Swastina
Sontag, David Alexander
Stratton, Jacklyn
Trinh, Huong
Xu, Chang
Losina, Elena
Date Issued
February 2020
Journal
ACR Open Rheumatology
Publisher
Wiley
Citation
Collins, Jamie E. et al. "Predicting Remission Among Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Starting Tocilizumab Monotherapy: Model Derivation and Remission Score Development." ACR Open Rheumatology 2, 2 (February 2020): 65-73 © 2020 The Authors
Version
Final published version
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Most patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) strive to consolidate their treatment from methotrexate combinations. The objective of this analysis was to identify patients with RA most likely to achieve remission with tocilizumab (TCZ) monotherapy by developing and validating a prediction model and associated remission score. METHODS: We identified four TCZ monotherapy randomized controlled trials in RA and chose two for derivation and two for internal validation. Remission was defined as a Clinical Disease Activity Index score less than 2.8 at 24 weeks post randomization. We used logistic regression to assess the association between each predictor and remission. After selecting variables and assessing model performance in the derivation data set, we assessed model performance in the validation data set. The cohorts were combined to calculate a remission prediction score. RESULTS: The variables selected included younger age, male sex, lower baseline Clinical Disease Activity Index score, shorter RA disease duration, region of the world (Europe and South America [increased odds of remission] versus Asia and North America), no previous exposure to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and/or methotrexate, lower baseline Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index score, and baseline hematocrit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.739 in the derivation data set and 0.756 in the validation data set. Patients were categorized into three remission prediction categories based on the remission prediction score: 40% in the low (less than 10% probability of remission), 45% in the intermediate (10%-25% probability), and 15% in the moderate remission prediction category (greater than 25% probability). CONCLUSION: We used easily accessible factors to develop a remission prediction score to predict RA remission at 24 weeks after initializing TCZ monotherapy. These results may provide guidance to clinicians tailoring treatment options based on clinical characteristics.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Medical Engineering & Science
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Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1002/acr2.11101
