Wargame of Drones: Remotely Piloted Aircraft and Crisis Escalation
Name
SSRN-id3288988.pdf
Description
Accepted version
Size
849.12 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
be86a9b37c863b806749940978620268
Author(s)
Lin-Greenberg, Erik
Date Issued
2022
Journal
Journal of Conflict Resolution
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Citation
Lin-Greenberg, Erik. 2022. "Wargame of Drones: Remotely Piloted Aircraft and Crisis Escalation." Journal of Conflict Resolution, 66 (10).
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
How do drones affect escalation dynamics? The emerging consensus from scholarship on drones highlights increased conflict initiation when drones allow decisionmakers to avoid the risks of deploying inhabited platforms, but far less attention has been paid to understanding how drones affect conflict escalation. Limited theorization and empirical testing have left debates unresolved. I unpack the underlying mechanisms influencing escalation decisions involving drones by proposing a logic of remote-controlled restraint: drones limit escalation in ways not possible when inhabited assets are used. To test this logic and explore its instrumental and emotional microfoundations, I field "comparative wargames." I immerse national security professionals in crisis scenarios that vary whether a drone or inhabited aircraft is shot down. I validate wargame findings using a survey experiment. The wargames shed light on the microfoundations of escalation, highlight limits of existing theories, and demonstrate the utility of comparative wargaming as an IR research tool.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027221106960
