Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
Name
[Choucri et al] 2005 Understanding & Modeling State Stability-Exploiting System Dynamics.pdf
Description
Final published version.
Size
391.71 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
133e54c45f42498643203328f2614e6e
Author(s)
Choucri, Nazli
Electris, C.
Goldsmith, D.
Mistree, D.
Madnick, Stuart E.
Morrison, J. B.
Siegel, M. D.
Sweitzer-Hamilton, M.
Date Issued
March 4, 2006
Publisher
IEEE
Citation
Choucri, N., et al. (2006). Understanding & modeling state stability: Exploiting system dynamics. 2006 IEEE Aerospace Conference, 1–11.
Version
Author's final manuscript.
Final published version.
Abstract
The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘ loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its ‘ capacity’ to withstand these ‘ loads’, on the other. The problem is to determine and ‘ predict’ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for ‘ tipping points’, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of ‘ tipping’ and enhance prospects for stability.
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