Learning from Recounts
Name
elj.2017.0440.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
547.18 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
89cd1ef35fa6e45f2207ce52ce618713
Author(s)
Ansolabehere, Stephen
Burden, Barry C
Mayer, Kenneth R
Stewart, Charles
Date Issued
2018
Journal
Election Law Journal
Publisher
Mary Ann Liebert Inc
Version
Final published version
Abstract
© 2018, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. We compare the results of two recent statewide recounts in Wisconsin-the 2011 Supreme Court election and the 2016 presidential election. Using the measure of absolute differences between the original tally and the recount, we find an error rate at the reporting unit level of 0.21% in 2011 and 0.59% in 2016. The 2016 error rate drops to 0.17% when write-in votes are removed from the analysis. We also find that paper ballots originally counted with optical scanners were counted more accurately than ballots originally counted by hand. To reach these conclusions, we address the methodology of measuring differences in election night and recounted vote tallies. The most commonly used measure to compare election-night and recounted tallies, the net difference, significantly understates the magnitude of errors in the original tally. We also develop a regression-based technique that estimates what the error rate should be if a ballot-by-ballot recount were possible. We conclude by discussing the implications for requiring post-election audits.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1089/ELJ.2017.0440
