Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change
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O'Gorman_Understanding the varied.pdf
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Author(s)
O'Gorman, Paul
Date Issued
October 2010
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Citation
O’Gorman, P. A. “From the Cover: Understanding the Varied Response of the Extratropical Storm Tracks to Climate Change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107.45 (2010): 19176–19180. ©2010 by the National Academy of Sciences
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011547107
