Quantifying the COVID ‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?
Name
System Dynamics Review - 2022 - Rahmandad - Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame Is a new normal within reach.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
1.06 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
623f20c3f78d0ed0f06283b296d35864
Author(s)
Rahmandad, Hazhir
Sterman, John
Date Issued
2022
Journal
System Dynamics Review
Publisher
Wiley
Citation
Rahmandad, Hazhir and Sterman, John. 2022. "Quantifying the COVID ‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?." System Dynamics Review, 38 (4).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Eradication of COVID-19 is out of reach. Are we close to a "new normal" in which people can leave behind restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a detailed model of the COVID-19 pandemic spanning 93 countries, we estimate the biological and behavioral factors determining the risks and responses, and project the likely course of COVID-19. Infection fatality rates have fallen significantly due to vaccination, prior infections, better treatments, and the less severe Omicron variant. Yet based on their estimated tolerance for deaths, most nations are not ready to live with COVID-19 without any NPIs. Across the world the increased transmissibility of Omicron, combined with the decay of immunity, leads to repeated episodes of reinfections, hospitalizations, and deaths, complicating the emergence of a new normal in many nations. © 2022 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1002/SDR.1715
