Uncertainties in energy technology assessments
Name
EL_TR_1980_013.pdf
Size
8.69 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
aeeccafb0897cfa34002ac7c0c3dc686
Author(s)
Coate, David
Date Issued
1980
Publisher
Cambridge : Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Energy Laboratory, 1980
Series/Report no.
Energy Laboratory report (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Energy Laboratory) no. MIT-EL 80-013.
Abstract
In order to make important contributions, energy technology assessments must be large, interdisciplinary projects, generally becoming very time consuming and expensive. This small project does not involve a large assessment, but instead combines several different types of investigations aimed at exploring the potential for, and significance of, uncertainty in the energy technology assessment process. First, a survey and discussion is presented of technology assessments, primarily from a methodological viewpoint. A general ideal methodology is developed and the potentials for incorporating uncertainties are described. Second, there is a detailed development of meteorology, demographic and health impact components, the key components in energy technology assessments. There is particular emphasis on the impacts of assumptions and potential methods for incorporating concepts of uncertainty. Finally there are included three small examples of energy technology assessments. These have been tailor-made to demonstrate the possibilities and importances of the concept of uncertainty in these assessments.
Subjects
Technology assessment.
Power resources.
Technological forecasting.
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