Energy transition and equity: Quantifying pathways to building decarbonization based on notions of fairness
Name
Energy transition and equity.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
15.55 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
957301696170f08aa8adf6e2157e2ab8
Author(s)
De Simone, Zoe
Arcaya, Mariana
Reinhart, Christoph
Date Issued
November 2025
Journal
Energy Policy
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Buildings are significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for nearly 40 % of the total. This makes decarbonizing the building sector crucial for reaching carbon-neutrality by 2050. While federal US tax incentives support a variety of upgrades, deep retrofitting all US single-family homes would cost approximately $240 billion, exceeding available public funds. The question therefore is how to best allocate limited public funds. The prevailing equality-based approach, which provides equal support to all homeowners, inherently favors higher-income groups, perpetuating inequality. Alternatively, focusing incentives on disadvantaged households risks depleting funds before economies of scale are fully realized. To develop incentive structures that balance long-term building-related carbon emissions and equity, we propose a model that combines a physics-based urban building energy model (UBEM) with US homeowners’ willingness-to-pay predictions and a spectrum of incentive policies. Using Oshkosh, WI, as a case study, we explore the philosophical, economic, political, and mathematical dimensions of creating just and effective decarbonization policies that ensure healthy, low-carbon homes for all. Our findings reveal that our evidence-based policy framework facilitates the achievement of concurrent carbon reduction and equity goals, allows to compare policies on the bases of long-term community impact, as well as avoid potential policy pitfalls of over and under incentivization.
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DOI of Published Version
10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114798
