An Exit Strategy from the Covid-19 Lockdown based on Risk-sensitive Resource Allocation
Name
CBMM-Memo-106.pdf
Size
431.13 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
babc1f8181bc4038b9f558f77bbcb701
Author(s)
Shalev-Shwartz, Shai
Shashua, Amnon
Date Issued
April 15, 2020
Publisher
Center for Brains, Minds and Machines (CBMM)
Series/Report no.
CBMM Memo;106
Abstract
We propose an exit strategy from the COVID-19 lockdown, which is based on a risk-sensitive levels of social distancing. At the heart of our approach is the realization that the most effective, yet limited in number, resources should protect those at high risk rather than applied uniformly across the population. By generalizing the SEIR model to mixed populations, and based on existing data in Israel, we present an analysis of the maximal load on the health system and the total mortality. We argue that risk-sensitive resource allocation combined with risk-sensitive levels of social distancing enables to lower the overall mortality toll in parallel to resumption of economic activity.
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