Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration
Name
Roberts-2009-Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration.pdf
Size
755.6 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
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Author(s)
Hastings, Daniel E.
Roberts, Christopher James
Richards, Matthew G.
Ross, Adam Michael
Rhodes, Donna H.
Date Issued
April 2009
Journal
3rd Annual IEEE Systems Conference, 2009
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Citation
Roberts, C.J. et al. “Scenario planning in dynamic multi-attribute tradespace exploration.” Systems Conference, 2009 3rd Annual IEEE. 2009. 366-371. ©2009 IEEE.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes, available technology, funding levels, and supporting infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large numbers of alternative system time lines is presented. A satellite radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs, contexts, and time lines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionally-derived scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value delivery across potential time lines.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Technology, Policy, and Industrial Development
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1109/SYSTEMS.2009.4815828
