International changes in the world oil market: A simulation perspective
Name
[Choucri] 1982 International Changes in the World Oil Market.pdf
Description
Final published version.
Size
507.71 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
7f891357d05c2839750213def6fbe41b
Author(s)
Choucri, Nazli
Date Issued
October 1, 1982
Publisher
© International Political Science Association
Citation
Choucri, N. (1982). International changes in the world oil market: A simulation perspective. International Political Science Review, 3(4), 378–403.
Version
Final published version.
Abstract
The oil price increases of October 1973 triggered a set of changes in the international system that promise to have continued, long-term effects. This article begins with a review of the major attempts to model the world oil market and provides syntheses of their char acteristics and worldview. The structure of the International Petroleum Exchange Model developed at MIT is then presented, followed by a set of simulations (forecasts) of future changes in petroleum supply and demand associated with alternative price paths. The simulations are also compared with empirical data to provide some insights into the potential accuracy of the forecasts.
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