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Uncertainty quantification of ocean parameterizations: application to the K‐Profile‐Parameterization for penetrative convection

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Author(s)
Souza, AN
•
Wagner, GL
•
Ramadhan, A
•
Allen, B
•
Churavy, V
•
Schloss, J
•
Campin, J
•
Hill, C
•
Edelman, A
•
Marshall, J
Date Issued
2020
Journal
Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Version
Final published version
Abstract
©2020. The Authors. Parameterizations of unresolved turbulent processes often compromise the fidelity of large-scale ocean models. In this work, we argue for a Bayesian approach to the refinement and evaluation of turbulence parameterizations. Using an ensemble of large eddy simulations of turbulent penetrative convection in the surface boundary layer, we demonstrate the method by estimating the uncertainty of parameters in the convective limit of the popular “K-Profile Parameterization.” We uncover structural deficiencies and propose an alternative scaling that overcomes them.
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
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DOI of Published Version
10.1029/2020MS002108
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