Countervailing Effects of Extreme Maximum and Minimum Temperature Days on Conflict in Mainland Southeast Asia
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10640_2025_Article_1043.pdf
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Author(s)
Gasser, André Tashi
Lanz, Bruno
Date Issued
November 3, 2025
Journal
Environmental and Resource Economics
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Citation
Gasser, A., Lanz, B. Countervailing Effects of Extreme Maximum and Minimum Temperature Days on Conflict in Mainland Southeast Asia. Environ Resource Econ (2025).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
We exploit 0.5◦ × 0.5◦ raster data to document how exceedances of the local 90th percentile thresholds for daily maximum and minimum temperatures affect conflict in mainland
Southeast Asia. We show that conflict incidence increases with extreme high maximum
temperature days and decreases with extreme high minimum temperature days. This implies that failing to control for extreme minimums understates the effects of extreme maximums. Moreover, as the frequency of extreme maximums and minimums is expected to
increase together with average temperatures, the countervailing effects at both tails of
the temperature distribution offset one another in mean-temperature regressions, helping
to explain earlier inconclusive findings for the region. We also show that the effects of
extreme maximums and minimums differ by conflict type, actors involved and affected
populations. Thus, even in the absence of an aggregate mean-temperature effect, a rising frequency of extreme temperature days may generate complex distributional conflict
incidence.
MIT Department
MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
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Creative Commons Attribution
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-025-01043-4
