No Surprises
Name
10670_2019_110_ReferencePDF.pdf
Size
253.52 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
04e2575ab9321513710e0099a4f2dfa0
Author(s)
Wells, Ian
Date Issued
March 14, 2019
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
Abstract
The surprise exam paradox is an apparently sound argument to the apparently absurd conclusion that a surprise exam cannot be given within a finite exam period. A closer look at the logic of the paradox shows the argument breaking down immediately. So why do the beginning stages of the argument appear sound in the first place? This paper presents an account of the paradox on which its allure is rooted in a common probabilistic mistake: the base rate fallacy. The account predicts that the paradoxical argument should get less and less convincing as it goes along—a prediction I take to be welcome. On a bleaker note, the account suggests that the base rate fallacy may be more widespread than previously thought.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Linguistics and Philosophy
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-019-00110-9
