Ex Ante Evaluation and Improvement of Forecasts
Name
CP_071104_Tang-Otto-Seering_INFORMS.pdf
Size
2.9 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
cdc0a717a98941a96ec4645b460d4b52
Author(s)
Tang, Victor
Otto, Kevin N.
Seering, Warren P.
Date Issued
November 4, 2007
Abstract
The dominant approach reported in the literature is to evaluate forecasts after
the fact. We take a different approach, we present a way to evaluate and
Improve forecasts before the fact. We reconceptualize forecasts as thought
experiments grounded on mental models. We show the results of our process
which debiases and reduces the asymmetry of forecasters’ mental models.
We also reconceptualize forecasting as measurements with errors. And to
analyze and improve the entire forecasting process as a system, we use the
methods of Design of Experiments (DOE) and Gage R&R from Measurement
System Analysis (MSA). We show the results of our analyses using two new
metrics, repeatability and reproducibility and discuss new opportunities for
research.
Subjects
design of experiments (DOE)
gage R&R
measurement system analysis (MSA)
Terms of Use
Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United States
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